Uncertainty over volatility index levels have dropped by almost half after LS results (Column: Market Watch)
By Arun Kejriwal
The week, post exit polls that were declared on Sunday, was volatile and fruitful for the bulls. With volatility ruling the roost and BJP-led NDA beating the pollsters in their actual performance, markets were on a roll.
Volatility during the week saw BSESENSEX make a high of 40,124.96 points and a low of 38,570.04 points, an intra week move of 1,550 points. Similarly, NIFTY made a high of 12,041.15 points and a low of 11,591.70 points for a weekly move of 450 points.
Election day results saw the typical sell on news phenomenon and markets, after gaining intraday over 1,000 points on the BSESENSEX, closed with net loss of 300 points, while NIFTY, after gaining 305 points, lost 120 points.
BSESENSEX gained 1,503.95 points or 3.96 per cent to close at 39,434.72 points while NIFTY gained 436.95 points or 3.83 per cent to close at 11,844.10 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 4.01 per cent, 4.11 per cent and 4.23 per cent respectively.
BSEMIDCAP was up 4.45 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was up 5.85 per cent. FII’s were bullish and bought on four of the five trading days. Their net purchases during the week was Rs 5,900 crore.
The first part of electing a new government is now over. There is no uncertainty in the same and the mandate is more than crystal clear. The next part is the priorities of the government and its agenda.
Very clearly the focus would be on infrastructure creation and the Bharat-mala and Sagar-mala projects would be continued vigorously. This would help in job creation as well. As far as markets go, the next agenda would be cabinet formation and then the budget which would be presented in July.
As the same government continues, a lot of work on budget has already been done. This year, one could see some progress being made on strategic stake sale by DIPAM as well, and this is always welcomed by the markets.
There were a lot of developments in the week gone by. Reliance Capital has sold its stake in Reliance Nippon Asset Management Company to its equal partner, Nippon Life at Rs 230. This incidentally is below the issue price of Rs 252 during the IPO which was done during November 2017.
Naresh Goyal and his wife Anita Goyal, the promoters of now grounded airline Jet Airways, were not allowed to leave on a flight to Dubai on Saturday. A look out notice was issued against them and the flight which they had boarded was called back and they were made to deplane.
The top management of Manpasand Beverages which includes its Managing Director, Whole time Director and CFO were detained under judicial custody by the Commissioner of Excise and Customs, Vadodara, for taking bogus credit of input credit under GST. The company was already under the radar when its auditors resigned at the same time last year. The share would again be under severe pressure when trading resumes on Monday morning.
The week ahead sees May futures expire on Thursday, May 30. The present value of NIFTY at 11,844.10 points is higher by 202.30 points or 1.74 per cent. It’s a clear advantage for the bulls and with the kind of volatility witnessed during the month, bulls should be able to have the upper hand.
With election results declared the uncertainty over the volatility index levels have dropped by almost half and the premiums have significantly reduced. With the benchmark indices having performed and gained significantly, it would be quite logical to now expect the midcap and Smallcap to play catch up. A preview of the same was available last week where one saw these indices gain significantly more and outperform the benchmark indices.
Expect markets to continue to gain in the coming week with a broader participation. With global issues and geo political tension rising, investors are likely to look at India where the prospects of growth look more likely to happen than many other markets. While new highs are some distance away the fact that the intra week move and the gains are similar, we still have distance to travel upwards.
(Arun Kejriwal is founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services)